Macroeconomic Dynamics Affecting Economic Growth in Fragile Five Countries: A Cointegration Approach

Abstract

Technological advancements have brought innovations across various fields, thereby facilitating commercial and financial activities between countries and significantly enhancing the fluidity of capital movements. While some countries have quickly adapted to these innovations, developing countries with limited capital mobility and restricted foreign capital reserves have experienced adverse economic impacts. In economic outlook reports published by Morgan Stanley in 2013 and Standard and Poor’s in 2017, the countries most affected by global financial movements were described as fragile. The main problems of countries with fragile economies were identified as increased borrowing costs due to high interest rates, excessive dependence on short-term foreign investments, instability in macroeconomic indicators, and fluctuations in exchange rates. This study aims to examine the relationship between growth and selected fundamental macroeconomic indicators in developing countries referred to as the Fragile Five between 1991 and 2021 using cointegration analysis. The findings from the analysis indicate that no cointegration relationship exists. Despite sharing similar characteristics, the absence of a long-term relationship was determined due to the differing growth dynamics of these countries.